TL;DR Rising tensions in the Middle East could have ripple effects on India beyond energy security. The region hosts about 9.6 million Overseas Indians, is a major source of remittances, and remains an important trade partner, particularly for energy imports. Disruptions to shipping routes, flights, and regional economies could therefore affect fuel prices, trade flows, remittance inflows, and the livelihoods of Indians working in the region, though the impact on areas such as tourism may be relatively limited.

Context
Amid rising tensions in the Middle East following the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, concerns are growing about the wider economic and geopolitical repercussions of the conflict. The escalation has already begun to disrupt travel, trade, and energy markets across the region. Airspace closures and flight suspensions have stranded travellers in several Gulf transit hubs, while shipping activity through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted. The resulting uncertainty has pushed global oil prices higher, with the effects already being felt in import-dependent countries such as India, where LPG prices have risen, and concerns over possible supply shortages are growing.

As the conflict continues to unfold, these developments highlight how instability in the Middle East can quickly ripple through supply chains and economies far beyond the immediate conflict zone. Here’s a look at some of the other ways the conflict could affect India, beyond the frequently discussed risks to energy security.

Who compiles this data?
The data used in this story comes from multiple official government sources, including the Ministry of External Affairs (overseas Indians), Reserve Bank of India (remittances), Ministry of Commerce and Industry (trade), and Ministry of Tourism (tourism statistics).

Where can I download clean & structured data related to this?
Clean, standardised, structured, and ready-to-use detailed datasets on India’s engagement with Middle Eastern countries are available Dataful, including country-wise data on tourism, trade, remittance shares, and the overseas Indian population.

Key Insights

• The Middle East hosts one of the largest concentrations of Indians living abroad. About 9.6 million Overseas Indians, including around 9.5 million Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and a smaller number of Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs), live in countries in the region currently affected by the conflict. This accounts for about 56% of all NRIs globally. With tensions already escalating in the region, disruptions to travel, employment, and mobility could affect this large diaspora. The situation also raises the possibility of evacuations and could impact remittance flows to India.

• The large Indian diaspora in the region is also reflected in the remittances sent back home. India received $118.7 billion in remittances in 2023–24, according to the Reserve Bank of India. While Gulf countries remain an important source of these inflows, their share has declined over time. The share of the United Arab Emirates in inward remittances fell from 26.9% in 2016–17 to 19.2% in 2023–24, and that of Saudi Arabia from 11.6% to 6.7% during the same period.

• India also has significant trade ties with countries in the region. The United Arab Emirates remains India’s largest trading partner in the region. In 2024–25, India imported goods worth $66.5 billion from the UAE and exported $36.6 billion. In 2025–26 (as of December 2025), imports from the UAE stand at about $44.6 billion, while exports are $25.5 billion. Other major partners include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, which are key sources of India’s imports. While energy dominates this relationship, non-oil trade is also significant, with India exporting food products, engineering goods, chemicals, and other consumer items to the region. Disruptions to shipping routes and rising freight costs amid the conflict have begun affecting logistics, potentially impacting both India’s import supplies and export shipments.

• The conflict has already led to reduced and disrupted flight operations on several routes connecting India with parts of the Middle East, affecting airlines and transit travel through major Gulf hubs. The region accounted for about 2.97% of the 1.09 crore Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) to India in 2024, meaning prolonged disruptions could still affect visitor inflows from these countries, though their share is limited.

Why does it matter?
While the full impact of the conflict is still unfolding, the data highlights how closely India is connected to the Middle East through energy, trade, remittances, and a large diaspora. Disruptions in the region can therefore have ripple effects on India’s economy and people, from fuel prices and trade flows to the livelihoods of Indians working abroad. As the situation evolves, these linkages will play an important role in shaping how strongly the conflict is felt in India.

Key Numbers

• Overseas Indians in the Middle East: 9.6 million
  Includes ~9.5 million NRIs | ~56% of all NRIs globally

• Remittances to India: $118.7 billion (2023–24)
  UAE share: 19.2% | Saudi Arabia: 6.7%

• India–UAE Trade:
  2024–25: $36.6 bn exports | $66.5 bn imports
  2025–26 (as of Dec 2025): $25.5 bn exports | $44.6 bn imports

• Foreign Tourist Arrivals from the Middle East:
  2.97% of India’s 1.09 crore FTAs (2024)