TL;DR: An analysis of crude oil prices and retail fuel prices in India between 2019 and 2026 shows that petrol and diesel prices did not move in proportion to global crude oil fluctuations. While international crude prices reacted sharply to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and recent West Asia tensions, domestic fuel prices changed more gradually and often remained elevated even after crude prices moderated.

Context

Global crude oil prices have once again come into focus amid renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia and fluctuations in international energy markets. In recent weeks, political debates in India have reignited over whether domestic petrol and diesel prices adequately reflect movements in global crude oil markets. Even as international crude benchmarks have shown volatility, fuel prices in India have remained elevated, with petrol and diesel prices being raised in the last few days amid concerns over supply disruptions and rising import costs. The developments have once again prompted questions over taxation, pricing mechanisms, and the role of oil marketing companies in determining retail fuel prices.

India, which imports nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements, is highly vulnerable to swings in global oil prices. Yet the relationship between crude oil costs and retail fuel prices is neither direct nor immediate. Taxes imposed by the Centre and States, exchange rate movements, refining costs, dealer commissions, and policy decisions significantly influence the final price consumers pay at the pump. Against this backdrop, we examine crude oil trends alongside petrol and diesel prices to see how the global shocks in the last couple of years have affected fuel pricing in India.

Who compiles this data?
Data on the International FOB (Free on Board) Price of Crude Oil (Indian Basket), along with daily petrol and diesel prices in metro cities, is published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

Where can I download clean & structured data related to this?

Clean, standardised, structured, and ready-to-use datasets on crude oil prices published by PPAC and OPEC are available on Dataful. These are updated monthly and daily, respectively. Dataful also provides a daily updated dataset on the retail selling prices of petrol and diesel in metro cities for Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).

Key Insights

For the analysis, we focus on the period between 2019 and 2026, a phase marked by multiple global disruptions that significantly affected international crude oil markets. To better understand how these events influenced fuel prices in India, the period has been divided into four phases: 2019–2021, covering the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery; 2022–2023, marked by the Russia–Ukraine war; 2023–2024, when global crude prices moderated; and 2025–2026, characterised by renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Also, it should be noted that the analysis uses monthly average Indian Basket crude oil prices based on Free on Board (FOB) values, which represent the international purchase price of crude oil before shipping, refining, taxation, and retail distribution costs are added.

2019–2021: Pandemic Shock and Post-COVID Recovery

• India’s crude oil basket witnessed a historic collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Monthly average crude prices fell from $64.31 per barrel in January 2020 to $19.9 in April 2020, a decline of nearly 69%.

• Petrol and diesel prices, however, did not decline proportionately during the same period. Between January and April 2020, petrol prices fell by around 7%, while diesel prices declined by nearly 9%.

• Even as crude prices remained relatively subdued (below $50 per barrel) through much of 2020, retail fuel prices began rising steadily, indicating a widening gap between international crude costs and domestic retail prices.

• By October 2021, when crude prices recovered to around $82 per barrel, petrol prices in Delhi had crossed ₹105 per litre, while diesel prices rose above ₹94 per litre, both significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

2022–2023: Russia–Ukraine War and Oil Market Volatility

• The Russia–Ukraine war triggered another sharp spike in crude oil prices, with India’s crude basket touching over $116 per barrel during 2022, the highest level in the analysed period.

• Despite the sharp rise in global crude prices, retail fuel prices in India showed comparatively lower volatility. Petrol prices largely remained within the ₹95–₹105 range during 2022–23, while Diesel prices remained between ₹86–₹96. In short, retail fuel prices showed comparatively lower volatility than global crude oil prices during the Russia–Ukraine period.

2023–2024: Moderating Crude Prices, Sticky Retail Rates

• Global crude oil prices moderated significantly after the peak of the Russia–Ukraine crisis, with India’s crude basket largely remaining between $73 and $94 per barrel during 2023–24.

• Retail fuel prices, however, remained relatively elevated and stable despite the moderation in crude oil costs. Petrol prices largely stayed around ₹95–₹97 per litre, while diesel prices remained close to ₹88–₹90 per litre.

2025–2026: Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

• Fresh geopolitical tensions in West Asia once again pushed crude oil prices upward during 2025–26. India’s crude basket rose sharply from around $62 per barrel in late 2025 to over $114 per barrel by April 2026. Despite the increase in global crude prices, retail fuel prices remained largely unchanged through much of the period, including during the election season, before witnessing sharp upward revisions later.

Why does it matter?

The analysis shows that petrol and diesel prices in India do not move in direct proportion to international crude oil prices. While global crude markets witnessed sharp fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and recent tensions in West Asia, retail fuel prices in India changed more gradually and often remained elevated even after crude prices moderated. The trends suggest that factors such as taxes, exchange rate movements, dealer commissions, and policy interventions play a significant role in determining fuel prices alongside crude oil costs. Overall, the findings indicate that global crude price shocks are transmitted to domestic consumers selectively rather than in a direct or immediate manner.

Key Numbers

• $64.31 → $19.9/barrel — India crude basket (Jan–Apr 2020)

• ~7% fall — Petrol prices during the 2020 crude crash

• $116+/barrel — Crude peak during Russia–Ukraine war (2022)

• ₹105/litre+ — Delhi petrol peak (2021)

• $62 → $114+/barrel — Crude surge amid West Asia tensions (2025–26)