Articles

Dividends, Disinvestment and IDBI: Is India Better Off Holding or Selling?

Sai Krishna Muthyanolla

06 November 2026

TL;DR: India’s proposed IDBI Bank sale highlights the trade-off between immediate revenue and future returns from public ownership. The approved ₹52,878 crore offer would transfer a 60.72% stake and management control to Fairfax, with proceeds split between the Centre and LIC. IDBI has recovered from heavy losses, reporting ₹9,513 crore profit in FY26, although this includes capital infusion and recovery steps from the Government in earlier years. The dispute centres on whether the sale price reflects the bank’s sustainable earnings, assets and recovery potential. Meanwhile, disinvestment receipts have generally weakened since their peak, while dividends have increased, sharpening questions about when selling government stakes makes sound financial sense.

Context

Selling a government shareholding produces an immediate receipt. What the government gives up are the future dividends, influence over the institution and any subsequent increase in its value. These are harder to summarise in a single number. India’s proposed sale of IDBI Bank brings that trade-off into focus.

On 14 October 2026, the government approved a Fairfax subsidiary’s ₹52,878.08 crore offer for 60.72% (Centre’s stake of up to 30.48% and LIC’s stake of up to 30.24%) of IDBI Bank. The transaction would transfer management control from its public-sector owners to a private buyer, and would leave the Centre with a residual shareholding of 15% and LIC with 19%. Employees and opposition parties have challenged the valuation and the sale process.

The dispute requires two separate examinations: how IDBI arrived at the point of sale, and whether the price adequately compensates its owners. In today’s article, we shall look into the disinvestment receipts trends and other issues pertaining to the disinvestment of IDBI Bank.

Who compiles this data?

The Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) publishes disinvestment and dividend receipts. IDBI Bank’s financial disclosures provide its earnings and balance-sheet indicators.

Where can I download clean & structured data related to it?

Cleaned, structured, and ready-to-use datasets on Disinvestment trends and receipts can be downloaded from Dataful.

Key Insights

Selling stakes are bringing in less; dividends are adding to the Government Kitty

India’s disinvestment receipts have declined sharply from their peak of ₹1,00,037 crore in 2017–18 to ₹16,886 crore in 2025–26, a fall of nearly 83% in nominal terms, though it has recovered to ₹55,757 crore in 2026-27. The intervening years have seen considerable fluctuations, rather than a consistent flow of proceeds from stake sales. Dividends from government shareholdings, meanwhile, have moved in the opposite direction, increasing from ₹46,499 crore in 2017–18 to ₹78,438 crore in 2025–26.

These two streams represent different approaches to monetising public-sector investments. One involves selling government equity; the other generates income while retaining ownership. Asset monetisation introduces a third mechanism: unlocking the value of existing public assets without necessarily selling them. At a broader level, it can be seen that the government is earning more from holding stakes than selling them.

IDBI’s proposed sale involves more than a routine stake reduction. A minority stake sale can generate proceeds without changing who manages the enterprise. The proposed IDBI Bank transaction is different: it involves transferring management control. There is also an important distinction in how its proceeds are distributed. Of the estimated ₹52,878.08 crore transaction value, approximately ₹26,543.54 crore would accrue to the Union government and ₹26,334.54 crore to LIC, based on their respective stakes being sold. The entire amount, therefore, cannot be treated as Union government disinvestment receipts.

IDBI’s Profit After Tax rose nearly sevenfold, from ₹1,359 crore in 2020-21 to ₹9,513 crore in 2025-26

IDBI Bank returned to quarterly profit in January–March 2020 and to a full-year profit in FY21 (April 2020–March 2021), its first annual profit in five years. The March 2020 quarter brought ₹135 crore after 13 straight quarters of losses, though FY20 as a whole still closed with a ₹12,887 crore loss. Four consecutive profitable quarters followed through December 2020, the RBI lifted its prompt corrective action restrictions on 10 March 2021, and FY21 ended with a net profit of ₹1,359 crore.

The turnaround matches with the change in who owned the bank. In June 2018, the government held 85.96%. It put in ₹7,881 crore of fresh equity in May 2018, and LIC then bought in through preferential allotments and an open offer, paying ₹21,624 crore in all, which lifted LIC to 51% on 21 January 2019 and cut the government to about 46.46%. As of 31 March 2021, LIC’s stake settled at 49.24% and the government’s at 45.48%, which remains unchanged as of 31 March 2026. If the Fairfax deal closes as approved, Fairfax would hold 60.72%, LIC about 19%, the government about 15% and the public about 5%.

The loss question: what the price is measured against

IDBI Bank is not loss-making; the dispute is whether the government and LIC are selling a profitable bank for less than it is worth. The bank earned ₹9,513 crore in FY26, up 27%, though that includes a ₹1,707 crore gain from selling its NSDL stake, and its gross NPA ratio stood at 2.32% in March 2026.

The question is therefore how much a buyer should pay for a repaired bank, including sustainable earnings, capital, properties, recovery rights and obligations. The government’s initial reserve price was ₹94.42 per share; bids below it were not approved. The subsequently selected ₹81 offer was 14.2% below that figure, but 6.6% above a later ₹75.99 valuation comparator. The government says the later valuation used updated accounts, public-sector-bank market multiples and net asset valuation, disregarding a volatile, narrowly traded share price. It says land, properties, intangible assets and liabilities were included. Employees question the use of public-sector peers for a bank treated as private for regulatory purposes. While the price is only part of the argument, the opposition also questions the order in which things happened.

Why Does It Matter?

Selling IDBI would exchange future dividends, potential appreciation and public control for an immediate payment. Whether that serves the public interest depends on the price, the bank’s prospects and the support that helped restore its financial health. A profitable bank is not necessarily being sold cheaply, but profitability makes transparent valuation especially important. The Centre’s proceeds must also be distinguished from LIC’s: the full transaction value is not government revenue. For citizens, the issue extends beyond meeting disinvestment targets. It concerns whether public owners receive adequate compensation for surrendering control of a repaired institution and its future income and value

Key numbers

  • ₹1,00,037 crore: disinvestment receipts in 2017–18, the highest since 2014-15

  • ₹81: accepted offer per share in IDBI stake sale; ₹94.42: original reserve price; ₹75.99: revised valuation comparator.

  • ₹52,878.08 crore: combined sale consideration for government and LIC shares of IDBI

  • 34%: combined government (15%) and LIC holding (19%) of IDBI that would remain under the announced stake-sale terms, if completed

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